External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
External Correspondence: Decompositions of the Mean Probability Score
Two evaluative criteria for probabilistic forecasting performance, consistency with the axioms of probability theory and external correspondence with the events that ultimately occur, are distinguished. The mean probability, or Brier score (PS), is the scoring rule most commonly used to quantify external correspondence. A review is made of methods for decomposing PS into components that represe...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
سال: 1982
ISSN: 0030-5073
DOI: 10.1016/0030-5073(82)90237-9